The Cell Phone Effect

Here.

Also, see this for a nice graph of this so-called cell phone effect, courtesy of 411mania.com and The New Republic.

Health Care Policy Misrepresentations

I generally find the New Republic to be a bit too left-leaning, but I enjoyed this Health Care Policy discussion by Jonathan Cohn.

Here's a summary:

In order to cover his proposed 5K tax credit for health coverage, McCain would tax health benefits. Specifically, while the existing exemption for payroll taxes would stay in place, the existing exemption for income taxes would be repealed. But that would still leave 1.3 trillion dollars that McCain would need to find somewhere in the budget to make his plan revenue neutral. His chief economic adviser suggested that this would be accomplished through "savings" in Medicare. Obama pounced, by equating, against the vociferous protests from the McCain camp, "savings" with "cuts." The McCain campaign is not clear how it intends to skim 1.3 trillion from the current cost of Medicare. (Vague promises to "improve efficiency" and "eliminate fraud" don't sound promising.) Cohn says that no serious economists see the necessary "savings" as realistic. Hence, "cuts" is a borderline fair characterization.

Now, Obama's plan would leave a half a trillion dollar hole in the budget and he would also seek to improve efficiency of Medicare to address that; however, he has been consistent and specific as to how he intends to do so. "Cuts" therefore are substantially less likely.

Finally, and most importantly in my opinion, McCain boxes himself in through the holes in the budget his tax cuts will generate; hence if his "savings" don't work out he has to borrow from China. Obama is not boxed in with respect to tax policy to the same extent.

Obama in Toledo

Courtesy of the New York Times:

“We’ve lived through an era of easy money, in which we were allowed and even encouraged to spend without limits; to take out as many credit cards as possible...to borrow instead of save...Now, I know that in an age of declining wages and skyrocketing costs, for many folks this was not a choice but a necessity just to keep up, I understand that.”

“But we now know how dangerous that can be...Once we get past the present emergency, which requires immediate new investments, we have to break that cycle of debt. Our long-term future requires that we do what’s necessary to scale down our deficits, grow wages and encourage personal savings again.”

It's gut check time, America

Some (quoted rather than paraphrased) highlights from this excellent article by Fareed Zakaria:

1. Paul Volcker has long argued that the recent spate of financial innovation was nothing of the kind: it simply shuffled around existing resources while contributing few real benefits to the economy. Such activity will now be reduced significantly. Boykin Curry, managing director of Eagle Capital, says, "For 20 years, the DNA of nearly every financial institution had morphed dangerously. Each time someone at the table pressed for more leverage and more risk, the next few years proved them 'right.' These people were emboldened, they were promoted and they gained control of ever more capital. Meanwhile, anyone in power who hesitated, who argued for caution, was proved 'wrong.' The cautious types were increasingly intimidated, passed over for promotion. They lost their hold on capital. This happened every day in almost every financial institution over and over, until we ended up with a very specific kind of person running things. This year, the capital that remains is finally being reallocated to more careful, thoughtful executives and investors—the Warren Buffetts … of the world."The fear on Wall Street is that a Democratic administration would overregulate. But look at who is advising Barack Obama—Buffett, Volcker, former Treasury secretaries Robert Rubin and Larry Summers. It is more likely that what will come from their efforts will be a better-regulated financial system that, while producing less-extravagant profits, will be more stable and secure.
2. The financial industry itself is likely to shrink, and that's not a bad thing, either. It has ballooned dramatically in size. Curry points out that "30 percent of S&P 500 profits last year were earned by financial firms, and U.S. consumers were spending $800 billion more than they earned every year. As a result, most of our top math Ph.D.s were being pulled into nonproductive financial engineering instead of biotech research and fuel technology. Capital expenditures went into retail construction instead of critical infrastructure." The crisis will stop the misallocation of human and financial resources and redirect them in more-productive ways. If some of the smart people now on Wall Street end up building better models of energy usage and efficiency, that would be a net gain for the economy.
3. In the short term, all the solutions to the current crisis require that governments take on more debts and larger obligations. This is inevitable and necessary. But that doesn't mean we should, as some noted economists advocate, stimulate the economy with more tax cuts. That would be only one more way to keep the party going artificially—like asking a drunk to go to AA next year, but in the meantime to have even more whiskey. A far better stimulus would be to announce and expedite major infrastructure and energy projects, which are investments, not consumption, and therefore have a much different effect on the country's fiscal fortunes. (They are not listed separately in the federal budget, but that's just bad accounting.)
4. [I]t's a different world out there. [We are no longer assumed to know what we are doing on either the foreign policy or economic policy front, and the margin of error in these matters has shrunk dramatically.] We will have to make strategic choices. We cannot deploy missile interceptors along Russia's borders, draw Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, and still expect Russian cooperation on Iran's nuclear program. We cannot noisily denounce Chinese and Arab foreign investments in America one day and then hope that they will keep buying $4 billion worth of T-bills another day.

Palin and the Alaska Independence Party, and other McCain/Palin shadiness

Palling, and sleeping with (The York Daily Record), militant secessionists, felons, etc...(Salon)

We Americans need to ask ourselves: do we have friends, husbands, pastors, or campaign managers like this?

McCain on Energy Policy - "erratic"

This seems to suggest that he is all over the place, finally taking a stand for alternative energy in the bailout bill. Obama, on the other hand, has a consistent pro-energy independence voting record.

McCain associates with convicted felon and provocateur G. Gordon Liddy

From the Washington Post:

[I]t wouldn't be inappropriate to raise questions about McCain's association with G. Gordon Liddy, the convicted Watergate burglar whose colorful history includes telling listeners to his radio show in 1994 to shoot federal agents in the head. When McCain went on Liddy's radio show in November 2007, he told Liddy [link to the Chicago Tribune], "I'm proud of you, I'm proud of your family... It's always a pleasure for me to come on your program, Gordon, and congratulations on your continued success and adherence to the principles and philosophies that keep our nation great."

McCain hasn't been "truthful" in failing to explain this dubious relationship.

Michelle Obama's Cousin the Rabbi

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1019188.html

Haaretz is a leading Israeli publication (and a personal favorite of mine).

It is worth noting that he converted under the supervision of Orthodox and Conservative rabbis.

From Haaretz:

[Michelle Obama's cousin] is well-known in Jewish circles for acting as a bridge between mainstream Jewry and the much smaller, and largely separate, world of black Jewish congregations...

McCain's father-in-law/financier was a felon

Whose wealth do you think bought all these houses for Senator John McCain? That would be Mr. Jim Hensley's - Jim Hensley has sired Cindy Hensley McCain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Hensley

From Wikipedia:

In 1948, [Jim Hensley and his brother] were prosecuted by the federal government and convicted of multiple counts of falsifying liquor records in a conspiracy to conceal illegal distribution of whiskey against post-war rationing regulations. Jim Hensley received a six-month sentence (later upheld but suspended by an appeals court) while his brother received a year in federal prison, and both were fined.

Palin's pastor is an anti-Semite

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/10/06/florida/index.html

Palin was there, apparently, while he was blaming the "Israelites" (a.k.a. Jews) for what plagues us.

One Grandma is already voting Obama (according to little Bro). The other Grandma isn't voting. Grandmas kick butt irrespective of their political beliefs, quite frankly. Grandpa McCain (he's a grandpa age wise, at least) is the only known grandpa not to kick butt.

Palin quotes anti-Semite

http://gawker.com/5048188/palin-quoted-antisemitic-author-in-rnc-speech

The implication that people from small towns (read: white people from small towns) are somehow more genuinely American than other Americans: I argued that it's racist, and it probably is, but it is also anti-Semitic. My fellow Yehudim - this is unforgivable.

Really Large Number

From Forbes (via The Volokh Conspiracy):

In fact, some of the most basic details, including the $700 billion figure Treasury would use to buy up bad debt, are fuzzy.
"It's not based on any particular data point," a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. "We just wanted to choose a really large number."

John Allison, CEO of BB&T, opposes the Bailout

http://media.gatewaync.com/wsj/pdfs/2008/09/allison.pdf

This letter was sent to every Senator and Representative.

Notably, Wachovia is probably a primary competitor of BB&T.

Heath Shuler Votes "No" on the Bailout

Having failed as an NFL quarterback, Heath has become a Congressman in rural Western North Carolina. He then hurt himself in the process of hearing (but probably not listening to) Pelosi shooting her mouth. Having gotten a boo-boo to his fragile feelings, he proceeded, as Barney Frank so eloquently explained, to help the other sensitive Congresspeople flush the American economy down the toilet. (Go to Slate's Trailhead feature for the House Roll Call and a link to the transcript of Pelosi's speech.)

Barney Frank

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/09/frank_mocks_gop.html

It's difficult to find anything the least bit funny about this whole bailout mess, but Barney finds a way.

Debate

McCain, according to himself, has never been a good student. While Obama was preparing for the debate, McCain has been campaigning without interruption. This whole skipping the debate act to work on the bailout (where many have cast doubt on his ability to be helpful, or even to not interfere) reminds me of failing to study and then skipping school (with a decent excuse in hand) the day of the test.

Paulson and Bernanke

What I still don't understand about this whole bailout fiasco is where specifically this urgency to have the deal in place by Monday is coming from. What's so special about this upcoming Monday?

Have Paulson and Bernanke somehow created a market expectation that this (the bailout) would happen, thereby amplifying the adverse consequences if it doesn't?

I am confused.

Is the bailout necessary? Is the bailout just? Plus, Wall Street est mort - so?

Is the bailout necessary?
http://thecurrent.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/not-buying-it.php

Is the bailout just?
http://www.slate.com/id/2200604/

Wall Street is dead - what result? http://www.bmacewen.com/blog/archives/2008/09/how_big_how_bad_is_it.html

Obama/O'Reilly Transcript

Good stuff...

http://www.bigmouthfrog.org/2008/09/05/fox-news-bill-oreilly-interviews-barack-obama-part-1/

Ownership Society

With the government's acquisition of AIG, this Administration has effectively positioned itself to the left of China. Unfortunately, I can't confirm whether the Chinese government owns the China Life Insurance Company (the second biggest insurer in the world after AIG), a stake in which I can buy on the market. But, importantly, Yao Ming is their spokesman. Which entrepreneurial athlete is going to be AIG's spokesman, huh? (Manchester United is now sponsored by the United States, hehe.)

(Thanks to Unprofessional Foul via The Original Winger)