Monday, December 22, 2008

Fulham Winger Analysis

I compiled a spreadsheet attempting to analyze the relative effectiveness of three Fulham wingers, Simon Davies, Clint Dempsey, and Zoltan Gera, based on whether each plays on the right or the left. My initial hypothesis (or impression if you will) was that both Davies and Dempsey are more effective on the right, while Gera is equally effective on both wings (his public protestations to the contrary notwithstanding). My analysis relies on two stats, both obtained from the Daily Telegraph website: passes attempted and percentage of passes completed. I observed the following conventions: (i) I relied on the Daily Telegraph density charts to determine where each player played in a given match; if the players clearly switched positions (such as against Blackburn) during the match, I disregarded that match (ii) for each player, I only considered matches which he started and (iii) I did not adjust for matches where any of the three players was substituted; unfortunately that means that passes attempted numbers are a bit skewed. Gera's total passes stats against Newcastle and Middlesbrough are disregarded due to early substitution, but passing percentage in the Newcastle match is not. Clint's numbers against Middlesbrough are treated as if all occured while he played RW; in reality, he started at forward. Clint's numbers at Stoke are obviously disregarded as he played up front the entire match. So far, this spreadsheet is only marginally useful, and only as to Simon Davies, who I think basically played 90 minutes in every match and spent substantial minutes on both flanks. If the number of passes and their accuracy reflects a player's involvement, there is not a notable difference as to the wing on which Davies plays.



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